28th EUROPEAN Conference on Modelling and Simulation

 

ECMS 2014


University of Brescia, Italy

local pages: www.eco.unibs.it/ecms

May 27th - 30th, 2014
Brescia, Italy
 

     

Keynote Speakers

ECMS papers are listed in DBLP, SCOPUS, ISI, INSPEC and DOI


 


The following keynote speakers have been confirmed:

Stefan Thurner (Medical University of Vienna, Head of Section for Science of Complex Systems)

Volker Grimm (Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, Germany)

Miguel Onorato (University of Turin, Department of Physics)

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Stefan Thurner

Full professor of Science of Complex Systems at the Medical University of Vienna and external professor at the Santa Fe Institute (New Mexico, USA).

He has published more than 120 articles in fundamental physics, applied mathematics, complex systems, life sciences, econophysics, and social sciences, with a strong focus on computer simulation of complex systems. He holds two patents and is active in quantitative financial consulting for financial institutions, especially for automated trading strategies.

Preventing collapse of financial networks through systemic risk taxes

- answers from agent based models

abstract

Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk (SR), the risk that the system ceases to function and collapses. Since recently, it is possible to quantify SR in terms of underlying financial (multiplex) networks where nodes represent financial institutions, and links capture financial contracts such as loans, credits, or derivatives. We show that it is possible to quantify in real data the SR of individual transactions in a financial network. We propose a tax on individual transactions that is proportional to their contribution to the overall SR. If a transaction does not increase SR, it is tax free. We demonstrate with an agent based model (CRISIS macro-financial model) that the proposed Systemic Risk Tax (SRT) leads to a self-organized re-structuring of financial networks that are practically free of SR. ABM predictions agree remarkably well with the empirical data and can be used to understand the relation of credit risk and SR. 

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Volker Grimm

Professor of Theoretical Ecology and is doing research on computer simulation in ecology and model documentation and standardization.

With S. F. Railsback, he published the influential book “Individual-based modeling and ecology” (Princeton University Press, 2005), where he popularized the use of computer simulation in ecology and paved the way for a new alliance between ecology, computer and social sciences.

Patterns, protocols, and predictions: agent-based modelling as a multi-scope for analysing complex systems

abstract

Systems comprised of decision-making agents such as ecosystems or financial markets are complex. Nevertheless, they generate patterns in structure and dynamics which can be observed at different hierarchical levels and scales. Modellers, though, often focus on only one pattern, which usually is not sufficient to select among alternative model formulations. Therefore, pattern-oriented modelling (POM) has been developed as a general strategy for using multiple observed patterns for the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. Instead of using models as a ‘micro-scope’ focussing on individuals, or ‘macro-scope’ focussing on systems dynamics, POM uses agent-based models as ‘multi-scopes’ to capture the interaction between the whole system and its building blocks. I will present examples from ecology and other domains. I will demonstrate that models developed according to POM usually have a high level of structural realism, i.e. a high chance of capturing the internal organization good enough to make robust predictions of system responses to new conditions. Still, POM models are often tied to specific systems and observations. To proceed to a more general theory of agent-based complex systems, the ODD protocol for communicating agent-based models can be used to systematically relate the structure and processes of models to broad classes of patterns, or stylized facts, observed in different systems.

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Miguel Onorato

Leading researcher in nonlinear waves, turbulence and wave forecasting models, where he combined laboratory research and numerical simulations.

He had an influential role at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in developing and improving the wave forecasting system.

Numerical Simulation of surface gravity waves

abstract

The dynamics of surface gravity waves, i.e. waves at the interface between water and air, is governed by the Navier-Stokes equations that account for the conservation of momentum and mass of a small but macroscopic element of fluid. Boundary conditions at the free surface are required in order to describe the dynamics of the interface. The numerical simulations of the Navier-Stokes equations is in general not an easy task, especially if the Reynolds number is large enough and turbulence takes place. In the specific case of surface gravity waves, the computation is even more complicated by the fact that two fluids (air and water) are part of the domain. Moreover, waves are generated by a turbulent wind and waves may go through a breaking process in which air is entrapped in water forming bubbles.   In the talk I will present the state of the art of the simulations of ocean waves and discuss some recent results obtained using 1) a level set method (in collaboration with A. Iafrati) and 2) boundary-fitted approach (in collaboration with F. Zonta)

 

 


 


 


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