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Digital Library of the
European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
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Title: |
A Simulation Model For Long-Term Analysis Of The Electricity
Market |
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Authors: |
Ĭlhan
Or, Güzay Pasaoglu Kilanc |
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Published in:
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(2006).ECMS
2006 Proceedings edited by: W. Borutzky, A. Orsoni, R. Zobel. European
Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2006 ISBN:
0-9553018-0-7 20th
European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Bonn,
May 28-31, 2006 |
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Citation
format: |
Or, I., & Kilanc,
G. P. (2006). A Simulation Model For Long-Term Analysis Of The Electricity
Market. ECMS 2006 Proceedings edited by: W. Borutzky,
A. Orsoni, R. Zobel
(pp. 378-389). European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2006-0378 |
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DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2006-0378 |
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Abstract: |
After the
liberalization of the electricity generation industry, capacity expansion
decisions are made by multiple selforiented power
companies. Unlike the regulated environment, decision-making of market
participants is now guided by price signal feedbacks and by an imperfect foresight
of the future market conditions that they will face. In such an environment,
decision makers need to understand long-term dynamics of the supply and demand side
of the power market. To visualize the competitive electricity power market
dynamics, a simulation model based on system dynamic philosophy is developed
in this study. The developed model includes the demand module, the capacity
expansion module, the power generation sector, an accounting and financial
module, various competitors and a bidding mechanism (power pooling system).
By means of such a decision tool, companies and regulators have a better
opportunity to understand possible consequences of different decisions that
they may make under different policies and market conditions. The main part
of the paper is devoted to a detailed presentation of the model. At the end,
some findings of the preliminary scenario analysis are discussed. |
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