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Digital Library of the
European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
Title: |
A Spatial Simulation Model For The Diffusion Of A Novel Biofuel On The Austrian Market |
Authors: |
Elmar Kiesling, Markus Günther,
Christian Stummer, Rudolf Vetschera, Lea M. Wakolbinger |
Published in: |
(2010).ECMS
2010 Proceedings edited by A Bargiela S A Ali D
Crowley E J H Kerckhoffs. European Council for
Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2010 ISBN:
978-0-9564944-1-2 24th
European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Simulation Meets Global Challenges Kuala
Lumpur, June 1-4 2010 |
Citation
format: |
Kiesling, E., Günther,
M., Stummer, C., Vetschera,
R., & Wakolbinger, L. M. (2010). A Spatial
Simulation Model For The Diffusion Of A Novel Biofuel
On The Austrian Market. ECMS 2010 Proceedings edited by A Bargiela
S A Ali D Crowley E J H Kerckhoffs (pp. 41-49).
European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2010-0041-0049 |
DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2010-0041-0049 |
Abstract: |
To ensure long-term security of energy
supply and to mitigate climate change, sustainable low-carbon alternatives to
fossil fuels are needed. Second generation biomass- to-liquid biofuels provide such an alternative and are widely
considered a promising technology that may over- come the environmental and
economic problems associated with first generation biofuels.
In Austria, a research group at the Vienna University of Technology is developing
such a biofuel based on Fischer-Tropsch
synthesis. While the remaining technical challenges are expected to be
overcome in due time, the market introduction also requires substantial
investments. In this work, we intro- duce an agent-based simulation model
that can provide potential investors with forecasts for the biofuel’s market diffusion. The model considers initial
and repeat purchases, multiple competing products, and the spatial dispersion
of both consumers and potential points of sale. Given limited production
capacity, the latter feature sup- ports decision makers in choosing (initial)
points of sale with respect to rich sources of biomass as well as the geographic
concentration of consumers. |
Full
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