Digital Library of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation

Title:	Modelling Decisions Under Uncertainty In A Behavioural Queuing System
Authors:	Carlos A. Delgado A., Ann van Ackere, Karthik Sankaranarayanan, Erik R. Larsen
Published in:	(2011).ECMS 2011 Proceedings edited by: T. Burczynski, J. Kolodziej, A. Byrski, M. Carvalho. European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2011 ISBN: 978-0-9564944-2-9 25^th European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Jubilee Conference Krakow, June 7-10, 2011
Citation format:	Delgado A., C. A., van Ackere, A., Sankaranarayanan, K., & Larsen, E. R. (2011). Modelling Decisions Under Uncertainty In A Behavioural Queuing System. ECMS 2011 Proceedings edited by: T. Burczynski, J. Kolodziej, A. Byrski, M. Carvalho (pp. 34-40). European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2011-0034-0040
DOI:	http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2011-0034-0040
Abstract:	In this paper we use an agent-based modelling and simulation approach to model a queuing system with autonomous customers who routinely choose a facility for service. We propose a Cellular Automata model to represent the customers’ interactions and study how customers use their own experience and that of their neighbours in order to update their memory and decide what facility to join the next period. We use exponential smoothing to update the customers’ expected sojourn time. We incorporate uncertainty regarding these expectations into the customers’ decision. We compare the resulting behaviour when customers take into account uncertainty to the case where they ignore uncertainty at both the individual and the system level.
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