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Digital Library of the
European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
Title: |
Variance In System Dynamics And Agent Based Modelling
Using The SIR
Model Of Infectious Disease |
Authors: |
Aslam Ahmed, Julie Greensmith, Uwe Aickelin |
Published in: |
(2012).ECMS
2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G. Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann. European
Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2012 ISBN:
978-0-9564944-4-3 26th
European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Shaping reality through simulation Koblenz,
Germany, May 29 – June 1 2012 |
Citation
format: |
Ahmed, A., Greensmith,
J., & Aickelin, U. (2012). Variance In System
Dynamics And Agent Based Modelling Using The SIR
Model Of Infectious Disease. ECMS 2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G. Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann (pp. 9-15). European
Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2012-0009-0015 |
DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2012-0009-0015 |
Abstract: |
Classical deterministic
simulations of epidemiological processes, such as those based on System
Dynamics, produce a single result based on a fixed set of input parameters
with no variance between simulations. Input parameters are subsequently
modified on these simulations using Monte-Carlo methods, to understand how
changes in the input parameters affect the spread of results for the
simulation. Agent Based simulations are able to produce different output
results on each run based on knowledge of the local interactions of the
underlying agents and without making any changes to the input parameters. In
this paper we compare the influence and effect of variation within these two
distinct simulation paradigms and show that the Agent Based simulation of the
epidemiological SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered) model is more
effective at capturing the natural variation within SIR compared to an
equivalent model using System Dynamics with Monte-Carlo simulation. To
demonstrate this effect, the SIR model is implemented using both System
Dynamics (with Monte-Carlo simulation) and Agent Based Modelling
based on previously published empirical data. |
Full
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