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Digital Library of the
European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
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Title: |
What-If
Analysis Through Simulation-Optimization Hybrids |
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Authors: |
Marco Gavanelli, Michela Milano, Alan Holland,
Barry O'Sullivan |
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Published in:
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(2012).ECMS
2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G. Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann.
European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2012 ISBN:
978-0-9564944-4-3 26th
European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Shaping reality through simulation Koblenz,
Germany, May 29 – June 1 2012 |
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Citation
format: |
Gavanelli, M., Milano, M.,
Holland, A., & O'Sullivan, B. (2012). What-If Analysis Through
Simulation-Optimization Hybrids. ECMS 2012 Proceedings edited by: K. G.
Troitzsch, M. Moehring, U. Lotzmann (pp. 624-630).
European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2012-0624-0630 |
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DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2012-0624-0630 |
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Abstract: |
This
paper proposes to improve traditional what-if anal- ysis for policy making by
a novel integration of different components. When a simulator is available, a
human ex- pert, e.g., a policy maker, might understand the impact of her
choices by running a simulator on a set of scenarios of interest. In many
cases, when the number of scenar- ios is exponential in the number of
choices, identifying the scenarios of interest might be particularly
challeng- ing. We claim that abandoning this generate
and test ap- proach could greatly enhance the decision process and the
quality of political actions undertaken. In this pa- per we propose and
experiment with one approach for combining simulation with a combinatorial
optimization and decision making component. In
addition, we propose two alternative approaches that can reasonably combine decision making with simulation in a coherent way and
avoid the generate and test behaviour. |
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