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Digital Library of the
European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
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Title: |
Simulating
The Cost Of Social Care In An Ageing Population |
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Authors: |
Eric Silverman, Jason Hilton,
Jason Noble, Jakub Bijak |
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Published in:
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(2013).ECMS 2013 Proceedings edited
by: W. Rekdalsbakken, R. T. Bye, H. Zhang European Council for Modeling
and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2013 ISBN:
978-0-9564944-6-7 27th
European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Aalesund, Norway, May 27th –
30th, 2013 |
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Citation
format: |
Eric
Silverman, Jason Hilton, Jason Noble, Jakub Bijak (2013). Simulating The Cost Of Social Care In An
Ageing Population, ECMS 2013 Proceedings edited by: W. Rekdalsbakken, R. T. Bye,
H. Zhang, European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2013-0689 |
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DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2013-0689 |
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Abstract: |
In
this paper we present an agent-based model of the ageing UK population. The
goal of this model is to integrate statistical demographic projections of the
UK population with an agent-based platform that allows us to examine the
interaction between population change and the cost of social care in an ageing
population. The model captures the basic processes which affect the demand
for and supply of social care, including fertility, mortality, health status,
and partnership formation and dissolution. The mortality and fertility rates
in this population are drawn from statistical demographic projections until 2050
based on UK population data from 1951 - 2011. Results show that, in general,
we expect the cost of social care in the UK to rise significantly as the population
continues to age. An in-depth sensitivity analysis performed using Gaussian
Process Emulators confirms that the level of care need within the population
and the age of retirement have the most profound impact on the projected cost
of social care. |
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