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Digital
Library of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
Title: |
Optimal Fiscal Policies After
The “Great Recession”: A Case Study For Slovenia |
Authors: |
Reinhard Neck, Dmitri Blueschke, Klaus Weyerstrass |
Published in: |
(2016).ECMS 2016 Proceedings edited
by: Thorsen Claus, Frank Herrmann, Michael Manitz, Oliver Rose, European Council for Modeling and
Simulation. doi:10.7148/2016 ISBN:
978-0-9932440-2-5 30th
European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Regensburg Germany, May 31st
– June 3rd, 2016 |
Citation
format: |
Reinhard
Neck, Dmitri Blueschke, Klaus Weyerstrass
(2016). Optimal Fiscal Policies After The “Great Recession”: A Case Study For
Slovenia, ECMS 2016 Proceedings edited by: Thorsten Claus, Frank Herrmann,
Michael Manitz, Oliver Rose
European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2016-0145 |
DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2016-0145 |
Abstract: |
In this paper, we investigate how
fiscal policies should look like in a country like Slovenia. Slovenia’s present
situation is characterized by high and rapidly increasing public debt and low
growth. It is an interesting case because it is one of the few small open
economies from Central and Eastern Europe that was already in the Euro Area
before the “Great Recession”. Using the SLOPOLmodel,
an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyse
the effects of different fiscal policies in Slovenia over the next couple of
years by means of simulations. In particular, we determine optimal fiscal policies
for Slovenia over the next few years. Using the OPTCON algorithm, we
calculate approximately optimal fiscal policies under different scenarios. We
show that an optimal design of fiscal policies depends essentially on the
political preferences of Slovenian policy makers. Moreover, the simulations
and optimizations reveal the small scope of possible alternative fiscal stabilization
policies available due to the relatively low effectiveness of the fiscal
instruments with respect to their influence on the business cycle in the
Slovenian economy. |
Full
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