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Digital
Library of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
Title: |
The
Use Of Cluster Analysis For Demographic Policy Development: Evidence From
Russia |
Authors: |
Oksana
Shubat, Anna Bagirova, Abilova Makhabat, Anton Ivlev |
Published in: |
(2016).ECMS 2016 Proceedings edited
by: Thorsen Claus, Frank Herrmann, Michael Manitz, Oliver Rose, European Council for Modeling and
Simulation. doi:10.7148/2016 ISBN:
978-0-9932440-2-5 30th
European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Regensburg Germany, May 31st
– June 3rd, 2016 |
Citation
format: |
Oksana
Shubat, Anna Bagirova, Abilova Makhabat, Anton Ivlev (2016). The Use Of Cluster Analysis For Demographic
Policy Development: Evidence From Russia, ECMS 2016 Proceedings edited by:
Thorsten Claus, Frank Herrmann, Michael Manitz,
Oliver Rose European Council for Modeling and
Simulation. doi:10.7148/2016-0159 |
DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2016-0159 |
Abstract: |
Russia has been experiencing a
demographic crisis since the 1990s. The most obvious manifestations include
an excess of mortality over fertility rates, population decline and an ageing
population. The last 20 years have seen considerable activity to come up with
new demographic policy measures to mitigate these adverse trends, with single
solutions developed for all regions in Russia. This paper presents the
results of a study where cluster analysis was applied to enable the identification
of groups of regions with significant differences in the dynamics of
socio-demographic indicators. We used hierarchical cluster analysis to
classify and group Russian regions on the basis of social and economic
development indices for 2002 and 2008. The validity of the profiling was
confirmed using parametric and nonparametric tests. The analysis identified
three clusters of Russian regions. These clusters have significant differences
in socio-demographic indicators and the associated dynamics. The results of
our analysis identified ‘growth points’ for each cluster: the fertility
correlates that should be factored into the development of effective
demographic policy measures. |
Full
text: |