|
Digital
Library of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
Title: |
Models For Forecasting The Number Of Russian Grandparents |
Authors: |
Anna Bagirova, Oksana Shubat |
Published in: |
(2021). ECMS 2021,
35th Proceedings DOI: http://doi.org/10.7148/2021 ISSN:
2522-2422 (ONLINE) ISSN:
2522-2414 (PRINT) ISSN:
2522-2430 (CD-ROM) ISBN: 978-3-937436-72-2 Communications of the ECMS , Volume 35, Issue 1, June 2021, United Kingdom |
Citation
format: |
Anna Bagirova,
Oksana Shubat (2021). Models
For Forecasting The Number Of Russian Grandparents,
ECMS 2021 Proceedings Edited By: Khalid Al-Begain,
Mauro Iacono, Lelio
Campanile, Andrzej Bargiela
European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi: 10.7148/2021-0063 |
DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.7148/2021-0063 |
Abstract: |
Russian
demographic statistics does not provide information about the number of
grandparents. The aim of our study is to present models for forecasting their
number. We used data from the Human Fertility Database to estimate the
average age of a mother at the birth of her first child. Based on the
simulated age of Russian women’s entry into grandparenthood, the time series
of the number of Russian grandmothers was created. To obtain prospective estimates of the number of Russian
grandmothers, we tested various models used in demography to forecast
population size – mathematical (based on exponential and logistic functions)
and statistical (based on statistical characteristics of time series). To
estimate the number of grandmothers who are significantly involved in caring
for grandchildren, we used data from the Federal statistical survey. Our results
are as follows: 1) there is an increase in the age of entry into grandparenthood;
2) we estimated the size of potential grandmothers in different years and we
found two models which are more appropriate for forecasting: linear trend
model and average absolute growth model; 3) using these models, we predicted
an increase in the number of both potential and active grandmothers in the
next 5 years. |
Full
text: |