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Time series prediction for the housing construction market with the use of narnet

• Daria Wotzka
• Grazyna Suchacka
• Lukasz Mach
• Pawel Fracz
• Joachim Foltys
• Ionela Maniu

(2023). ECMS 2023, 37th Proceedings
Edited by: Enrico Vicario, Romeo Bandinelli, Virginia Fani, Michele Mastroianni, European Council for Modelling and Simulation.
DOI: http://doi.org/10.7148/2023
ISSN: 2522-2422 (ONLINE)
ISSN: 2522-2414 (PRINT)
ISSN: 2522-2430 (CD-ROM)
ISBN: 978-3-937436-80-7
ISBN: 978-3-937436-79-1 (CD) Communications of the ECMS Volume 37, Issue 1, June 2023, Florence, Italy June 20th – June 23rd, 2023

https://doi.org/10.7148/2023-0284

Daria wotzka, Grazyna suchacka, Lukasz mach, Pawel fracz, Joachim foltys, Ionela maniu (2023). Time series prediction for the housing construction market with the use of NARNET, ECMS 2023, Proceedings Edited by: Enrico Vicario, Romeo Bandinelli, Virginia Fani, Michele Mastroianni, European Council for Modelling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2023-0284

The paper discusses the study to develop and tune parameters of a nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNet or NARNN) model for predicting the number of housing units. Predictions were made for the housing construction market in Poland, which is a dynamically growing European market. Three stages of the housing construction process have been taken into considerationThe paper discusses the study to develop and tune parameters of a nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNet or NARNN) model for predicting the number of housing units. Predictions were made for the housing construction market in Poland, which is a dynamically growing European market. Three stages of the housing construction process have been taken into consideration: permits issued for house construction, houses under construction, and completed new houses. Experimental results have shown that a NARNet model can be a very effective tool in the considered scenario. A network model using the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation training function achieved the best model fit, as well as the most accurate one-month predictions.