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Digital Library of the
European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
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Title: |
Time
Series Analysis Of Heat Demand |
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Authors: |
Bronislav Chramcov, Jaroslav
Balátě |
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Published in:
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ECMS
2008 Proceedings Edited
by: Loucas S. Louca, Yiorgos Chrysanthou, Zuzana Oplatkova, Khalid Al-Begain ISBN:
978-0-9553018-6-5 Doi: 10.7148/2008 22nd
European Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Nicosia, June
3-6, 2008 |
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Citation
format: |
Chramcov, B., & Balate,
J. (2008). Time Series Analysis Of Heat Demand. ECMS 2008 Proceedings edited
by: L. S. Louca, Y. Chrysanthou,
Z. Oplatkova, K. Al-Begain (pp. 213-217). European Council for
Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2008-0213 |
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DOI: |
http://dx.doi.org/10.7148/2008-0213 |
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Abstract: |
The paper deals with an analysis
of time series of heat demand course. The course of heat demand and heat
consumption can be demonstrated by means of heat demand diagrams. The most
important one is the Daily Diagram of Heat Supply (DDHS)
which demonstrates the course of requisite heat output during the day.
This analysis is utilized for building up a prediction model of the DDHS.
Forecast of this heat demand course is significant for short-term and
long-term planning of heat production. This forecast is very important for
technical and economic considerations. The solved prediction is especially
determined for the qualitative-quantitative method of hot-water piping heat
output control, i.e. the Balátě System which enables to eliminate any transport delay. Its
importance is increased especially for controlled systems having great time
constants and great transport delay. In this paper we have focused on
determination of difference order, autoregressive process order and moving
average process order. |
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