Digital Library

of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation



Simulation-Based Measurement Of Supply Chain Risks


Ruslan Klimov, Yuri Merkuryev

Published in:


ECMS 2008 Proceedings

Edited by: Loucas S. Louca, Yiorgos Chrysanthou, Zuzana Oplatkova, Khalid Al-Begain


ISBN: 978-0-9553018-6-5

Doi: 10.7148/2008


22nd European Conference on Modelling and Simulation,

Nicosia, June 3-6, 2008


Citation format:

Klimov, R., & Merkuryev, Y. (2008). Simulation-Based Measurement Of Supply Chain Risks. ECMS 2008 Proceedings edited by: L. S. Louca, Y. Chrysanthou, Z. Oplatkova, K. Al-Begain (pp. 387-392). European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2008-0387



For today’s supply chains, risk management becomes an important instrument, which can protect a system from sudden collapses. Still, the meaning of the supply chain risk and techniques for its evaluation and mitigation still continue to be extensively researched. In this paper, simulation is used for risk management in supply chains. Within the discussed research, the supply chain risk is defined as possible disruptions that can affect the supply chain ability to function normally. Due to that, system reliability parameters are taken as a basis for risk evaluation. The difficulties of making the corresponding assessments mathematically are argued because of supply systems complexity. Then, simulation is applied as an effective tool for risk evaluation and management of the predefined supply chain. At the same time, the reliability theory mathematics is used for the created simulation model validation.

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