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Digital Library

of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation

 

Title:

The Use Of Cluster Analysis To Assess The Demographic Potential Of Russian Regions

Authors:

Oksana Shubat, Anna Bagirova, Irina Shmarova

Published in:

 

 

 

(2017).ECMS 2017 Proceedings Edited by: Zita Zoltay Paprika, Péter Horák, Kata Váradi, Péter Tamás Zwierczyk, Ágnes Vidovics-Dancs, János Péter Rádics

European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2017

 

 

ISBN: 978-0-9932440-4-9/

ISBN: 978-0-9932440-5-6 (CD)

 

 

31st European Conference on Modelling and Simulation,

Budapest, Hungary, May 23rd – May 26th, 2017

 

Citation format:

Oksana Shubat, Anna Bagirova, Irina Shmarova (2017). The Use Of Cluster Analysis To Assess The Demographic Potential Of Russian Regions, ECMS 2017 Proceedings Edited by: Zita Zoltay Paprika, Péter Horák, Kata Váradi, Péter Tamás Zwierczyk, Ágnes Vidovics-Dancs, János Péter Rádics European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi: 10.7148/2017-0053

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7148/2017-0053

Abstract:

In recent years, Russia has been grappling with a serious economic crisis. The slowing pace of economic development is accompanied by adverse demographic trends. The purpose of our study is to assess the demographic potential of Russian regions and identifying groups that require the implementation of specific measures aimed at its development. We used hierarchical cluster analysis to model Russia’s demographic space and segment regions with comparable problems related to forming demographic potential. Clustering was based on the indicators describing the demographic potential at the macro-level (regional) and meso-level (family level). The analysis identified the groups of regions that have the best and the worst conditions for the development of demographic potential. We proposed a set of measures that would be most relevant to the needs of specific groups of regions and could directly drive the development and actualisation of demographic potential. The analysis showed the need to use multi-factor classification in the demographics of countries that have a high level of regional differentiation. Modelling the demographic space on the basis of cluster analysis can be seen as an element of the system of supporting administrative decision-making and the development of effective demographic policy.

 

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