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Digital Library

of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation

 

Title:

Stress Test Modelling Of PD Risk Parameter Under Advanced IRB

Authors:

Zoltan Pollak, David Popper

Published in:

 

 

 

(2017).ECMS 2017 Proceedings Edited by: Zita Zoltay Paprika, Péter Horák, Kata Váradi, Péter Tamás Zwierczyk, Ágnes Vidovics-Dancs, János Péter Rádics

European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2017

 

 

ISBN: 978-0-9932440-4-9/

ISBN: 978-0-9932440-5-6 (CD)

 

 

31st European Conference on Modelling and Simulation,

Budapest, Hungary, May 23rd – May 26th, 2017

 

Citation format:

Zoltan Pollak, David Popper (2017). Stress Test Modelling Of PD Risk Parameter Under Advanced IRB, ECMS 2017 Proceedings Edited by: Zita Zoltay Paprika, Péter Horák, Kata Váradi, Péter Tamás Zwierczyk, Ágnes Vidovics-Dancs, János Péter Rádics European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi: 10.7148/2017-0087

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7148/2017-0087

Abstract:

The 2008 crisis highlighted the importance of using stress tests in banking practice. The role of these stress tests is to identify and precisely estimate the effect of possible future changes in economic conditions on the capital adequacy and profitability of banks. This paper seeks to show a possible methodology to calculate the stressed point-in-time PD parameter. The presented approach contains a linear autoregressive distributed lag model to determine the connection between the logit of default rates and the relevant macroeconomic factors, and uses migration matrices to calculate PDs from the forecasted default rates. The authors illustrate the applications of this methodology using real credit portfolio data.

 

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