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Digital
Library of the European Council for Modelling
and Simulation |
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Title: |
Dynamics Modeling And The
Study Of Birth Rate Determinants In Russian Regions |
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Authors: |
Oksana
Shubat, Anna Bagirova |
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Published in:
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(2019). ECMS 2019
Proceedings Edited by: Mauro Iacono, Francesco Palmieri, Marco Gribaudo,
Massimo Ficco, European Council for Modeling and Simulation. DOI: http://doi.org/10.7148/2019 ISSN:
2522-2422 (ONLINE) ISSN:
2522-2414 (PRINT) ISSN:
2522-2430 (CD-ROM) 33rd International ECMS Conference on Modelling
and Simulation,
Caserta, Italy, June 11th – June 14th, 2019 |
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Citation
format: |
Oksana Shubat, Anna Bagirova (2019). Dynamics
Modeling And The Study Of Birth Rate Determinants In Russian Regions, ECMS 2019 Proceedings Edited by: Mauro Iacono,
Francesco Palmieri, Marco Gribaudo, Massimo Ficco European Council for
Modeling and Simulation. doi: 10.7148/2019-0065 |
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DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.7148/2019-0065 |
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Abstract: |
Birth rate
dynamics are affected by several groups of factors. Their impact in Russia is
markedly differentiated across regions. The purpose of our study is to use
cluster analysis to reveal groups of Russian regions with similar birth rate
dynamics over the past 30 years of post-Soviet Russia and to define the
determinants of these dynamics in region clusters. We used hierarchical
cluster analysis to model Russian birth rate dynamics and segment regions
with comparable determinants in this dynamic. We used the Total Fertility
Rate and its indices for all regions over three important periods in the
demographic history of Russia. The analysis revealed 5 clusters of regions
with similar birth rate dynamics. The results of our analysis made it
possible to identify the regions most and least sensitive to the impact of
various groups of factors. Such modelling allows us to develop demographic
policy (and to plan budgets for their implementation) in various types of
regions in the most efficient way. |
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