Digital Library of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation

Title:	Living Longer. Working Longer? Life Expectancy And Retirement Age Trends In OECD Countries
Authors:	Erzsebet Kovacs, Agnes Vaskoevi
Published in:	(2019). ECMS 2019 Proceedings Edited by: Mauro Iacono, Francesco Palmieri, Marco Gribaudo, Massimo Ficco, European Council for Modeling and Simulation. DOI: http://doi.org/10.7148/2019 ISSN: 2522-2422 (ONLINE) ISSN: 2522-2414 (PRINT) ISSN: 2522-2430 (CD-ROM) 33rd International ECMS Conference on Modelling and Simulation, Caserta, Italy, June 11^th – June 14^th, 2019
Citation format:	Erzsebet Kovacs, Agnes Vaskoevi (2019). Living Longer. Working Longer? Life Expectancy And Retirement Age Trends In OECD Countries, ECMS 2019 Proceedings Edited by: Mauro Iacono, Francesco Palmieri, Marco Gribaudo, Massimo Ficco European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi: 10.7148/2019-0103
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.7148/2019-0103
Abstract:	Mortality trends in aging societies have become one of the most important economic and political considerations. Significant growth in life expectancy of the last 20 years did not result considerable changes in pension systems of most countries, longevity trends are not followed by increasing official retirement ages. Controversial tendencies lay down major challenges to societies: on state level it has high importance to create a sustainable pension system, and on individual level the well-grounded personal/family life-long financial stability is a key issue for well-being. The employment period, i.e., the active working time depends on – among other factors – the official retirement age. Despite the rise of longevity, the effective retirement age in most countries does not increase in the same pace. We have analyzed 20 years data of 35 OECD member countries, applied linear factor models on the life expectancy at birth and at age 65 for both male and female population, and compared the age-gain (defined as the difference between the two life expectancies) with effective retirement age. This factor model fits statistically well, however life factor and retirement factor form orthogonal axis, meaning we could not find correlation between longer life expectancy and retirement age. Using hierarchical and k-means clustering, we conclude the longevity and retirement age does not move parallel in these countries, we can find all combination of lower and higher life expectancies and exit-ages.
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