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Digital
Library of the European Council for Modelling
and Simulation |
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Title: |
Forecasting
Residential Electricity Consumption Based On Urbanization And Income
Projections |
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Authors: |
Emilia
Nemeth-Durko, Peter Juhasz, Fanni Dudas |
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Published in:
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2020). ECMS 2020 Proceedings
Edited by: Mike Steglich, Christian Muller, Gaby Neumann, Mathias Walther,
European Council for Modeling and Simulation. DOI: http://doi.org/10.7148/2020 ISSN:
2522-2422 (ONLINE) ISSN:
2522-2414 (PRINT) ISSN:
2522-2430 (CD-ROM) ISBN: 978-3-937436-68-5 Communications of the ECMS , Volume 34, Issue 1, June 2020, United Kingdom |
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Citation
format: |
Emilia Nemeth-Durko, Peter Juhasz, Fanni Dudas (2020). Forecasting Residential Electricity Consumption Based On Urbanization And Income Projections, ECMS 2020 Proceedings Edited By: Mike Steglich, Christian Mueller, Gaby Neumann, Mathias Walther European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi: 10.7148/2020-0104 |
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DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.7148/2020-0104 |
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Abstract: |
This study
presents an alternative method for predicting residential electricity
consumption. Based on electricity expenditures data from Hungary, we
calculated consumption patterns for people living in different types of
settlements by income deciles. We developed 12 scenarios of expected
urbanization and income effects for the period 2020 to 2050. Our forecast
outputs are consistent with scenarios in the literature proving that in the
absence of long-term panel data, future electricity consumption can still be
adequately estimated based on the evolution of electricity expenses. |
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Full
text: |
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