|
|
Digital
Library of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
|
Title: |
Macroeconometric Input-Output Model For Transport Sector Analysis |
|
Authors: |
Velga Ozolina,
Astra Auzina-Emsina |
|
Published in:
|
(2021). ECMS 2021,
35th Proceedings DOI: http://doi.org/10.7148/2021 ISSN:
2522-2422 (ONLINE) ISSN:
2522-2414 (PRINT) ISSN:
2522-2430 (CD-ROM) ISBN: 978-3-937436-72-2 Communications of the ECMS , Volume 35, Issue 1, June 2021, United Kingdom |
|
Citation
format: |
Velga Ozolina, Astra Auzina-Emsina
(2021). Macroeconometric Input-Output Model For
Transport Sector Analysis, ECMS 2021
Proceedings Edited By: Khalid Al-Begain, Mauro Iacono, Lelio Campanile, Andrzej Bargiela European Council
for Modeling and Simulation. doi:
10.7148/2021-0082 |
|
DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.7148/2021-0082 |
|
Abstract: |
Effective
government transport policy can be based only on realistic data,
sophisticated and detailed transport sector analysis, and productive modelling. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the
main elements used to develop a relatively small macro-economic input-output
model with the emphasis on transport for one European Union (EU) country.
Transport sector faces similar problems in various countries linked with
emissions, transport flows, road accidents and other issues hence appropriate
modelling tool should be selected. The model
presented in this article consists of econometric and input-output relations.
The research analyses and examines three scenarios and stresses the
importance of the transport investment not only for development of the
transport sector, but also for the economic development in general. The
scenarios imply zero, 9 million and 6.7 million additional investment
in transport sector eligible to the EU funding. As the result of additional
investment, GDP recovers faster leading to 0.3-1.7%points faster growth rates
as compared to the base scenario with no additional investment leading to
faster cohesion with the average EU level, as well as higher number and
turnover of passengers in the public and commercial transport, while the
number of passenger cars is lower. The model can also be applied to study
regional development, if it is possible to distinguish, which regions will
benefit from the investment, as well as influence on fuel consumption and CO2
emissions, if the investments are targeted to specific means of transport. |
|
Full
text: |
|
