|
|
Digital
Library of the European Council for Modelling and Simulation |
|
Title: |
Forecasting Models for First Year Premium of Life Insurance |
|
Authors: |
Somsri Banditvilai, Choojai Kuharattanachai |
|
Published in:
|
(2022). ECMS 2022,
36th Proceedings DOI: http://doi.org/10.7148/2022 ISSN:
2522-2422 (ONLINE) ISSN:
2522-2414 (PRINT) ISSN:
2522-2430 (CD-ROM) ISBN: 978-3-937436-77-7 Communications of the ECMS , Volume 36, Issue 1, June 2022, Ålesund, Norway May 30th - June 3rd, 2022 |
|
Citation
format: |
Somsri Banditvilai, Choojai Kuharattanachai (2022). Forecasting Models for First Year Premium of Life Insurance, ECMS 2022 Proceedings Edited By: Ibrahim A. Hameed, Agus Hasan, Saleh Abdel-Afou Alaliyat, European Council for Modeling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2022-0090 |
|
DOI: |
https://doi.org/10.7148/2022-0090 |
|
Abstract: |
The objective of this research is to study forecasting
models for the first year premium of
life insurance. The premium data are gathered from the Office of Insurance
Commission (OIC) during January 2003 to
November, 2021. The data are divided into 2 sets. The first set from January, 2003 to December 2020 is
used for constructing and selection the
forecasting models. The second one from January 2021 to November 2021 is used
for computing the accuracy of the
forecasting model. The forecasting models are chosen by considering the minimum
Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is
used to measure the accuracy of the model. The results showed that the multiplicative model with initial values from 18
years Decomposition method give the appropriate model for the first year
premium of life insurance and yields the MAPE = 17.29%. |
|
Full
text: |
|
