Title:
Impact of the volume of developer housing units on real estate prices in poland: correlation and coherence analysis
Authors:
- Daria Wotzka
- Pawel Fracz
- Marzena Stec
- Ireneusz Dabrowski
- Lukasz Mach
- Bartosz Chorkowy
Published in:
(2024). ECMS 2024, 38th Proceedings
Edited by: Daniel Grzonka, Natalia Rylko, Grazyna Suchacka, Vladimir Mityushev, European Council for Modelling and Simulation.
DOI: http://doi.org/10.7148/2024
ISSN: 2522-2422 (ONLINE)
ISSN: 2522-2414 (PRINT)
ISSN: 2522-2430 (CD-ROM)
ISBN: 978-3-937436-84-5
ISBN: 978-3-937436-83-8 (CD) Communications of the ECMS Volume 38, Issue 1, June 2024, Cracow, Poland June 4th – June 7th, 2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7148/2024-0091
Citation format:
Daria wotzka, Pawel fracz, Marzena stec, Ireneusz dabrowski, Lukasz mach, Bartosz chorkowy (2024). Impact of the volume of developer housing units on real estate prices in Poland: correlation and coherence analysis, ECMS 2024, Proceedings Edited by: Daniel Grzonka, Natalia Rylko, Grazyna Suchacka, Vladimir Mityushev, European Council for Modelling and Simulation. doi:10.7148/2024-0091
Abstract:
This article conducts a comprehensive correlation analysis to explore the relationship between the development volume by developers and average market prices in Poland's housing sector from 2010 to 2022, utilizing quarterly data on the number of apartments released and their average prices. It employs both linear and nonlinear correlation analysis alongside wavelet coherence analysis. Preliminary correlational analysis offered insights into the basic interdependency patterns, highlighting how developer-supplied apartment numbers impact average prices. Wavelet coherence analysis, a more sophisticated approach, decomposed the data across various frequencies to uncover complex, nonlinear relationship patterns potentially missed by conventional correlation methods. The findings of the study highlight significant connections between the variables that vary over time and space, emphasizing the complexity of the housing market and underscoring the necessity for thorough analysis. These results carry important implications for developers, investors, and housing policy formulation, contributing significantly to understanding Poland's residential real estate market dynamics and supporting further research and strategic real estate industry planning.
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